March Stats
After the whirlwind start to 2007 reality started to bite in March as Rovers dropped five points from a possible twelve and suffered the first defeat in two months. However gaining 1.75 points per game was still good enough for fourth best in the division and saw the team maintain their position in the playoff places.
As we hit the run-in it’s maybe worth looking at the likely finishing spots and looking for any trends that give us an idea of what to expect should we secure a playoff spot.
We’ll all be reassured to know that we officially can’t get relegated this season, something which we would have happily taken back in October. Unfortunately our title ambitions are also out of the window, and it’s interesting to note that had it been two clubs straight up then Morton and Stirling would have secured those two positions by now. As it is one of them will miss out and have to fight through the playoffs if they are to gain the second promotion spot. At the moment using current form both clubs are projected to finish on 79 points, so it really looks like it could go to the wire. As far as our main interest is concerned no team below us is expected to get anywhere close to the 50 points we currently have meaning it will take a major change in form for Rovers to miss out now. The magic number right now though is 5, which is the combination of points gained by Rovers or lost by Ayr or Cowdenbeath, to make 4th arithmetically certain.
While recent form appears to have slipped it is still good enough over the last eight games to be second in the league, behind a surging Stirling Albion. Away form over the season has been as good as anyone, but as we know it is the home form which has held the club back. However it took until mid-December to secure the first home win so form has been pretty good over the rest of the season.
Where there is cause for concern is in the record against the top half of the table, i.e. the teams we would meet in any playoff. It’s not terrible but it is the worst of the four top teams – albeit only slightly worse than Brechin – with a minus 4 goal difference compared to the other teams positive GD. The main difference from Brechin is Rovers are a stingy side who don’t concede but don’t score whereas Brechin are the other side of the coin in that they are higher scoring side with a leaky defence. Who’s to say which approach will be more successful come playoff time with both teams likely to be paired with ‘better’ opposition.
The final piece of the playoff jigsaw will be decided over the next month or so as the 1st Division comes to a conclusion. At this point it’s too close to call between Airdrie United and Ross County as to which club takes the automatic drop and which is given a chance in the playoffs. Queens and Partick look to have enough points and momentum to stay clear of the drop but of course with so few games left some good results for one of the bottom two could drastically change that. Whatever the next few weeks have to give it looks like the season will go right down to the final games, just as a good league should!
